2026 FIFA World Cup
World Cup War Room
Model-driven advancement probabilities and market edge signals.
Group Winners
MexicoGrp A · 32.1%
SwitzerlandGrp B · 27.9%
BrazilGrp C · 36.4%
USAGrp D · 28.4%
GermanyGrp E · 34.6%
NetherlandsGrp F · 34.7%
BelgiumGrp G · 27.9%
SpainGrp H · 34.6%
FranceGrp I · 42.0%
ArgentinaGrp J · 54.6%
PortugalGrp K · 34.3%
EnglandGrp L · 39.1%
Fragile Favorites
France5.8% to win
Spain4.5% to win
Top pWin teams w/ high-impact doubt injury
Path Cheese
BelgiumGrp G
GermanyGrp E
SwitzerlandGrp B
Softest group opposition by avg Elo
Model Confidence
5h old
4 unresolved doubt injuries
Odds Currency
UPDATE MARKET_ODDS with live book prices before betting
48/48
teams with live prices
Group Stage
Group A
MexicoElo 1780
74.9% adv
32.1% win grp
South KoreaElo 1740
70.3% adv
16.8% win grp
Czech RepublicElo 1740
65.0% adv
25.0% win grp
South AfricaElo 1705
58.5% adv
18.8% win grp
Group B
SwitzerlandElo 1785
76.6% adv
27.9% win grp
CanadaElo 1750
68.1% adv
25.4% win grp
Bosnia & HerzegovinaElo 1715
62.0% adv
25.0% win grp
QatarElo 1695
61.9% adv
25.0% win grp
Group C
BrazilElo 1840
76.0% adv
36.4% win grp
MoroccoElo 1795
71.3% adv
33.0% win grp
ScotlandElo 1735
66.7% adv
25.0% win grp
HaitiElo 1665
53.4% adv
25.0% win grp
Group D
TurkeyElo 1755
71.1% adv
23.2% win grp
USAElo 1795
69.7% adv
28.4% win grp
AustraliaElo 1730
64.9% adv
21.7% win grp
ParaguayElo 1730
62.3% adv
25.0% win grp
Group E
GermanyElo 1820
80.1% adv
34.6% win grp
EcuadorElo 1755
71.6% adv
23.1% win grp
Ivory CoastElo 1730
66.2% adv
19.8% win grp
CuracaoElo 1640
49.1% adv
25.0% win grp
Group F
NetherlandsElo 1830
74.9% adv
34.7% win grp
SwedenElo 1775
67.4% adv
25.0% win grp
JapanElo 1745
62.7% adv
26.5% win grp
TunisiaElo 1715
62.2% adv
18.6% win grp
Group G
BelgiumElo 1800
73.7% adv
27.9% win grp
IranElo 1730
68.1% adv
19.9% win grp
EgyptElo 1720
65.8% adv
19.3% win grp
New ZealandElo 1665
59.7% adv
12.9% win grp
Group H
SpainElo 1845
80.5% adv
34.6% win grp
UruguayElo 1790
70.5% adv
27.3% win grp
Saudi ArabiaElo 1700
58.0% adv
16.8% win grp
Cape VerdeElo 1690
56.7% adv
25.0% win grp
Group I
FranceElo 1875
80.4% adv
42.0% win grp
NorwayElo 1795
68.5% adv
25.0% win grp
SenegalElo 1770
64.4% adv
27.5% win grp
IraqElo 1705
52.3% adv
13.6% win grp
Group J
ArgentinaElo 1960
89.5% adv
54.6% win grp
AustriaElo 1760
60.8% adv
25.1% win grp
AlgeriaElo 1720
59.8% adv
17.0% win grp
JordanElo 1695
53.0% adv
15.9% win grp
Group K
ColombiaElo 1805
78.4% adv
30.4% win grp
PortugalElo 1825
74.1% adv
34.3% win grp
D.R. CongoElo 1705
57.0% adv
25.0% win grp
UzbekistanElo 1700
56.2% adv
18.4% win grp
Group L
EnglandElo 1855
80.0% adv
39.1% win grp
CroatiaElo 1795
70.5% adv
26.6% win grp
PanamaElo 1715
58.1% adv
18.1% win grp
GhanaElo 1710
57.1% adv
17.9% win grp
Live Edge Feed
No previous snapshot — movers will appear after the next daily update.
| Team | Grp | Elo | P(Adv) | P(Win Grp) | P(R16) | P(QF) | P(SF) | P(Final) | P(Win)↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina·2 | J | 1960 | 89.5% | 54.6% | 60.1% | 39.2% | 25.9% | 16.9% | 11.1% |
| France·3 | I | 1875 | 80.4% | 42.0% | 48.1% | 28.9% | 17.2% | 10.2% | 5.8% |
| England· | L | 1855 | 80.0% | 39.1% | 46.8% | 27.2% | 15.6% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Spain·2 | H | 1845 | 80.5% | 34.6% | 46.1% | 26.5% | 15.0% | 8.4% | 4.5% |
| Brazil·3 | C | 1840 | 76.0% | 36.4% | 42.1% | 22.5% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Portugal· | K | 1825 | 74.1% | 34.3% | 42.1% | 22.9% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| Germany·2 | E | 1820 | 80.1% | 34.6% | 44.5% | 23.7% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Netherlands·2 | F | 1830 | 74.9% | 34.7% | 40.7% | 22.0% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Colombia· | K | 1805 | 78.4% | 30.4% | 43.4% | 22.9% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Belgium·3 | G | 1800 | 73.7% | 27.9% | 37.8% | 20.0% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| USA· | D | 1795 | 69.7% | 28.4% | 37.0% | 19.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Croatia | L | 1795 | 70.5% | 26.6% | 37.4% | 19.9% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Morocco· | C | 1795 | 71.3% | 33.0% | 36.6% | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Uruguay· | H | 1790 | 70.5% | 27.3% | 36.8% | 19.7% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Norway· | I | 1795 | 68.5% | 25.0% | 36.2% | 19.5% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Switzerland· | B | 1785 | 76.6% | 27.9% | 40.2% | 20.2% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Mexico· | A | 1780 | 74.9% | 32.1% | 38.7% | 19.9% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Sweden·2 | F | 1775 | 67.4% | 25.0% | 34.0% | 16.6% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Ecuador·2 | E | 1755 | 71.6% | 23.1% | 35.8% | 17.2% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Senegal· | I | 1770 | 64.4% | 27.5% | 32.8% | 17.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Canada· | B | 1750 | 68.1% | 25.4% | 33.6% | 15.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Austria | J | 1760 | 60.8% | 25.1% | 30.4% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Turkey· | D | 1755 | 71.1% | 23.2% | 35.4% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Czech Republic· | A | 1740 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 31.0% | 14.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| South Korea·2 | A | 1740 | 70.3% | 16.8% | 33.7% | 16.1% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Japan·2 | F | 1745 | 62.7% | 26.5% | 29.7% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Australia· | D | 1730 | 64.9% | 21.7% | 30.9% | 14.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Scotland· | C | 1735 | 66.7% | 25.0% | 30.9% | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Iran·2 | G | 1730 | 68.1% | 19.9% | 31.4% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Ivory Coast·2 | E | 1730 | 66.2% | 19.8% | 31.5% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Paraguay· | D | 1730 | 62.3% | 25.0% | 29.6% | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Egypt·2 | G | 1720 | 65.8% | 19.3% | 29.8% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina· | B | 1715 | 62.0% | 25.0% | 28.9% | 12.9% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| South Africa·3 | A | 1705 | 58.5% | 18.8% | 26.4% | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Algeria· | J | 1720 | 59.8% | 17.0% | 27.6% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Tunisia·2 | F | 1715 | 62.2% | 18.6% | 27.7% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Panama· | L | 1715 | 58.1% | 18.1% | 26.4% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| D.R. Congo | K | 1705 | 57.0% | 25.0% | 26.4% | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Saudi Arabia·2 | H | 1700 | 58.0% | 16.8% | 25.2% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Uzbekistan· | K | 1700 | 56.2% | 18.4% | 25.8% | 11.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Ghana·2 | L | 1710 | 57.1% | 17.9% | 26.1% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Qatar· | B | 1695 | 61.9% | 25.0% | 27.9% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Cape Verde | H | 1690 | 56.7% | 25.0% | 24.5% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Iraq·3 | I | 1705 | 52.3% | 13.6% | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Jordan· | J | 1695 | 53.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| New Zealand·2 | G | 1665 | 59.7% | 12.9% | 24.2% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Haiti· | C | 1665 | 53.4% | 25.0% | 21.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Curacao· | E | 1640 | 49.1% | 25.0% | 19.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |